La France insoumise executives had already monitored the former Minister of Productive Recreation’s media return in 2020. You now have to deal with the announcement of the “engagement” party on Sunday as it prepares to run for president.
“Sixth Republic, criticism of Europe, intervention of the state: you are in the same room”, analyzes Rémi Lefebvre, professor of political science at the University of Lille-II.
Proof of this is that in 2017 an Arnaud Montebourg, defeated in the socialist elementary school, hesitated to support the Insoumis, who were involved in his second presidential campaign, and not the PS candidate Benoît Hamon. He now seems to be betting on reversing the balance of power, which is undoubtedly supported by the mediocre results of the LFI in the midterm elections and the decline in the popularity of its founder.
Arnaud Montebourg wants to address all French “beyond the left”, declared the President of “The Commitment” Valentin Przyluski on Sunday. An ambition that is not unlike that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in 2017.
In addition, several ex-LFI militants, mainly the left sovereignists, disappointed in what they believe to be strategic mistakes made by the leader of the rebels, now have the defender of “de-globalization” in their sights. “He was one of the first to stand up for the Sixth Republic and stand up against Europe,” says one of them, Sacha Mokritzky, who left the LFI in 2020.
“Learn to split like Mélenchon”
Signs of a possible impending struggle: “There is great debate among certain militants about this concept of the Sixth Republic: Mélenchon would have spoken it first, but Montebourg would have made it public …”
A relative of the former minister emphasizes: “Mélenchon, we can make him naked, we theorized all his subjects at his side in the PS in the 1990s.” The difficulty, “is that his electorate is even more left-wing than he is and he will always make his 8 to 12%” ….
But Arnaud Montebourg, says Sacha Mokritzky, “has to learn to split like Mélenchon”. Arnaud Montebourg seems to have integrated the need to seduce the radical left, recently granting interviews to the web TV Le Média and the Quartier Général.
According to relatives, Arnaud Montebourg can only rely on “about fifty” people to found his party. In addition, “they are” aware that funding will be a problem, it will take at least 10 million euros, “reports a source familiar with the matter.
“The advantage will go to Mélenchon if it comes to a confrontation: it already has a program, a structure, numerous activists all over France and a certain ability to rally”, summarizes a framework of Europe Ecology Les Verts.
“Not of the same cloth”
On this last point, Rémi Lefebvre disagrees and sees in the potential candidacy of Arnaud Montebourg the ability to aim more broadly: “He will certainly play the card of the former rebel”, therefore different from the notes of François Hollande, “but without sharing as much as Mélenchon. He was able to calm down more, having recently been minister in favor of a rural France and reindustrialization. “
Furthermore, he says, the two men are “not made of the same cloth”: The current entrepreneur in the organic food industry “is more of an industrialist, productivist, very entrepreneur-friendly, he can seduce small business owners and will try to convince certain right-wing sovereigns while Mélenchon is much greener “.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon is by no means formulating frontal attacks to preserve the possibility of a future alliance. When asked by HuffPost in November 2020, he said, “I believe in the sincerity of his repentance. Obviously, I turn to him.”