What studies are expected from the government?

No new delivery immediately. The executive wants to take its time before tightening the health restrictions.

A health protection council will take place this Wednesday morning to analyze the development of the health situation. Before deciding on a third restriction, however, the government is waiting to examine the results of two impact studies: one at 6 p.m. curfew, the other on the progression of variants of the virus, including full dates, is expected this Friday.

The health situation is deteriorating, but not exponentially

“Is the curfew sufficient or not? This is the question we are asking ourselves,” summarized an advisor to the executive branch. “In my opinion, containment can only be the very last measure, once all other measures have been applied. It is a decision too difficult to be made in a hurry,” said Bruno Le Maire again. Wednesday morning via France Culture, realizing that “what we ask the French is difficult” and that is why he wants to wait for the results of the curfew.

France “is still in an ambiguous phase in which the health situation is deteriorating, but not exponentially,” summarizes a frame of the majority. However, the results of two studies can have a decisive influence. We’ll explain it to you.

The effects of the curfew

The first expected study looks at the effects of the 6pm curfew. It was set up in 15 departments from January 2nd and expanded to 8 additional departments on January 10th, and two additional departments on January 12th, and on Saturday January 16th, at the national level. In order to assess the real impact of the general curfew, we will have to wait two weeks this Saturday, January 30th.

In its epidemiological update of January 21, Public Health France gives first estimates. A “stabilization of the incidence, positivity and screening rates at the national level” is noted, but an “increase in the number of cases in people aged 75 and over and in nursing homes and an increase in hospital admissions and admissions.” in intensive care since early January “.

Following its initial observations, Public Health France states that “the incidence rate of confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 has decreased in the departments that were prematurely locked on January 2nd and this indicator is stable in the other departments”.

The effects of the curfew have already been shown to be positive. But is this enough measure to slow the spread of the virus? This the government hopes to avoid restricting the country again.

In an interview with Liberation on Tuesday, Jean-François Delfraissy, the president of the Scientific Council responsible for advising the executive branch, judged that this 6 p.m. curfew was insufficient to limit the spread of Covid-19 and more contagious variants. “We have seen that such interim measures were not enough in England and Ireland,” he said.

This is tended to be confirmed by the latest hospital data: the number of hospital patients rose further to 27,005 on Tuesday, including 2,006 patients who arrived in the last 24 hours. 3,071 were in intensive care compared to 2,829 a week earlier. In addition, 352 more hospital deaths have been recorded in the past 24 hours.

The presence of variants

The second expected survey was conducted by the National Reference Center for Respiratory Infectious Viruses (CNR) for the presence of the English and South African variants of the virus. Tuesday and Wednesday all positive PCR tests will be analyzed to determine whether the new variants are involved in the contamination.

“The positive cases for the coronavirus will be sequenced, which means we will examine their entire genome to see whether it contains the modification or not,” said doctor Grégory Destras on Monday in the Parisian columns.

The English variant represents 9.4% of the cases discovered in Ile-de-France between January 11 and 21. This indicates an impending “very significant” increase in the number of patients, doctors at the hospital said on Tuesday. “Assistance publique -Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP).

In a first flash survey conducted on January 7th and 8th, the British variant was found in 1% of positive PCR tests in France. The risk of infection from this variant could, however, increase the number of contaminations on French territory exponentially.

By January 22, at least 132 cases of infections with the English variant had been found in France, according to data from Public Health France and the ARS.